Amidst a cascade of unprecedented heatwaves, storms and droughts, the stark reality of climate change looms large.

Renowned climate scientist Dr James Hansen, who’s pivotal 1988 testimony to the US Senate first brought global warming to public attention, issues another stark warning. In his newly published Pipeline Paper, Hansen, joined by fellow scientists, asserts that we are hurtling towards a “new climate frontier,” where temperatures surpass any recorded in the past million years. Described as a “superheated climate,” this alarming trajectory is a direct result of humanities collective failure to heed longstanding warnings about the climate crisis.

With temperatures having already risen by approximately 1.2°C above 1900 preindustrial temperatures, there’s now a 20% higher chance of experiencing extreme summer temperatures – up dramatically from a mere 1% half a century ago. Against the backdrop of record-breaking heatwaves worldwide, the words used by Hansen in his latest paper resonate with disappointment in the inadequate response to a crisis that scientists have been sounding the alarm on for decades.

Hansen underscores a critical aspect of the climate crisis, notably, the decline of aerosols since 2010. Aerosol particles able to deflect the sun’s rays have been offsetting a portion of the warming caused by human-made greenhouse gas emissions. He suggests that the reduction in aerosol emissions is expected to accelerate the global warming rate. Today’s equilibrium global warming from human-made greenhouse gas is around 10°C, but this is partially mitigated to 8°C by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere.

The decline in aerosols, however, means that the post-2010 global warming rate, previously at 0.18°C per decade, is anticipated to increase to at least 0.27°C per decade. If current trends persist, global warming is likely to breach the 1.5°C limit in the 2020s and surpass 2°C before 2050. This shift in climate dynamics will intensify the near-term impacts on both people and the environment, particularly in terms of hydrologic extremes.

Hansen’s Projections have their critics, but closely align with the IPCC’s own projections

There is divergence within the scientific community regarding Hansen’s recent declaration about an accelerated pace of global warming. Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, challenges Hansen’s assertion, citing a lack of current evidence supporting such claims. Mann argues that the warming of the climate system has displayed a notable and consistent steadiness. While some experts find Hansen’s proposition plausible, a broader consensus insists on the necessity of more extensive data before accepting the idea of an escalating warming trend. Hansen’s thesis of the world crossing the 1.5°C threshold in the next few years and the 2°C threshold in the next few decades, although critiqued, closely aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) projections based on current policy emission trajectories.

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